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TOPIC: Cytori Financial Projections by DOV 3-28-16

Cytori Financial Projections by DOV 3-28-16 28 Mar 2016 21:08 #6728

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I have made a few format revisions to my spreadsheet, which along with the notes section should make it easier to read. The information herein has been gathered from completely public sources either verbally or written. I changed the revenue sources section to match the 10-K.

In the past, I have posted this spreadsheet to solicit opinion from everyone and was willing to make changes based on that input. If I recall correctly, Hedge was the only one who provided any constructive opinion. As always, I welcome opinion and I am sure I will read plenty of that. What is different this time is that this is MY spreadsheet and I am going to stand behind it regardless of public opinion. Other spreadsheets are welcomed. I actually copied Jason Kolbert's spreadsheet into an excel file to make it easier to read but corrected his year totals from the quarterly numbers. I will attach in a subsequent post.
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Cytori Financial Projections by DOV 3-28-16 28 Mar 2016 21:12 #6729

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Here is the Maxim Spreadsheet dated 3-23-16
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Cytori Financial Projections by DOV 3-28-16 29 Mar 2016 10:39 #6730

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As usual - for the users without access to open- or corporate Office spreadsheet software, the shareable links to the spreadsheets are as follows:

DOV´s spreadsheet: HERE


Maxim´s spreadsheet: HERE
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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

Cytori Financial Projections by DOV 3-28-16 30 Mar 2016 07:59 #6734

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Fas, I would not take all these numbers seriously. Harris, MAP, Tiago Girao, Xudong Ma are doing something that we are not very clear. CYTX's restructure plan since Calhoun's disappearance has changed since October 2015.

I think the 10 K outlines their current plan: a very slim and mean company with one clinical study at a time (scleroderma then thermal burn, with OA in the back burner, unless there is a partner; maybe another orphan indication after sleroderma). Sales and marketing are the new focus, particularly in Asia where the regulations are much more friendly. I trust they will break even in 2018.

FAS, honestly, CYTX is a real "GOING CONCERN" (as described in 10K). Harris, Ma, Girao (based on the track records of Ma and Harris with very short stint in their previous employments) are all risk takers. These are all firemen, making a final attempt to save the company. It would be a win-win situation if the "game" is won. This game is highly speculative and this may be the real reason Thompson has decided to move on (he may not have a strong heart for all the ups and downs, particularly for the past 2 years, while all the longs have lost their shirts).
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Cytori Financial Projections by DOV 3-28-16 30 Mar 2016 10:56 #6740

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franshei wrote: Fas, I would not take all these numbers seriously. Harris, MAP, Tiago Girao, Xudong Ma are doing something that we are not very clear. CYTX's restructure plan since Calhoun's disappearance has changed since October 2015.

I think the 10 K outlines their current plan: a very slim and mean company with one clinical study at a time (scleroderma then thermal burn, with OA in the back burner, unless there is a partner; maybe another orphan indication after sleroderma). Sales and marketing are the new focus, particularly in Asia where the regulations are much more friendly. I trust they will break even in 2018.

FAS, honestly, CYTX is a real "GOING CONCERN" (as described in 10K). Harris, Ma, Girao (based on the track records of Ma and Harris with very short stint in their previous employments) are all risk takers. These are all firemen, making a final attempt to save the company. It would be a win-win situation if the "game" is won. This game is highly speculative and this may be the real reason Thompson has decided to move on (he may not have a strong heart for all the ups and downs, particularly for the past 2 years, while all the longs have lost their shirts).


Franshei- thanks for the post and agree with you as to Cytori will survive i.e. I have no GOING CONCERN doubts either. I totally disagree, it will be a very slim and mean Company- key differences I see-

1. the Company is partnerable and I think that will occur still in 2016- maybe several times. :whistle:

2. there is a lot more in Japan and Europe than we know, which has a good chance in delivering revenues before the "spreadsheet knowns" come into effect.

3. Calhoun, Celactive and Allied Finance are real and will become an issue.

Once 1 has occurred, our journey will start.
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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

Cytori Financial Projections by DOV 3-28-16 30 Mar 2016 13:09 #6743

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First of all, Thank you DOV for sharing your very detailed spreadsheet !!!!!

I guess I have 3 areas of concern.

SUI in Japan
Looks like you are forecasting 25K of revenue per treatment for Cytori....any idea on the total cost for the procedure ? I ask, because the Japanese patient will have to pay 30% of that out of pocket. No small amount for a treatment that still leaves a average leak of 12cc/day.
350 treatments in 2019 and 900 in 2020 might seem reasonable for a aging yet populated country but it is taking 2 years just to get our 40 or so for the trial enrollment. I think you have a bigger hurdle than you think here. How many centers do you see offering this in 2019 and 2020 ?

OA
I have stated before...I have real concerns for the success of the OA trial and therefore believe OA estimates should be very minimal. You have this app lumped in with aesthetics and IBD. Can you give a better break out of these figures ? Especially your view on the US aesthetics market. While I decided to abandon my own 2020 estimates for now I basically pulled OA revenue from it until further clarity can be obtained.

Thermal Burn
Wow ! A big figure here for 2020 !!!!!!
Lets assume you are correct and BARDA places 1000 CTX2's in 2019. You have 6000 patients being treated in 2020 for this app. To me, that's C-R-A-Z-Y !
I am sure there are different figures out there but in there are about 40,000 annual burns that require hospitalization of which 30,000 end up in Burn Treatment Centers. Lets take the lower 30K figure. How do you expect to capture 20% of this market in the first year ? How can this many surgeons be trained to treat 6,000 patients in the first year ? I am still thinking the scope of this will not be Standard of Care but special situation application. I think we would be generous to predict 900 patients for this app in the US for 2020.
This would include new patients and some older patients with specific hard to heal areas or specific range of motion issues. BTW, I can easily see much less that 900 treated in 2020.

Other thoughts include Lorem...big disappointment and just may be better to part ways. I can also understand why Lim wouldn't be happy with Cytori.

Okyanos....no surprise for me the number of patients is lower than expected...called that from before they opened. They should thank their lucky stars they were able to expand beyond cardiac.

Scleroderma...we will just have to see what idis can really pull. Also, if all the Sites in the STAR trial are open I wish Cytori would update it on clinicaltrials.gov !

I guess that's about it. :bye:
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Cytori Financial Projections by DOV 3-28-16 31 Mar 2016 12:58 #6747

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Thanks, FAS

Now let us looking forward to a better year ahead.

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Cytori Financial Projections by DOV 3-28-16 01 Apr 2016 15:59 #6750

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FAS, CYTX stock price is inching up into the 20s. I hope we are heading toward the 37/38 cents area (the old support that we may all forget), before the collapse into the teens.

If we are back into the 40 cents area, I hope a 10 for 1 r/s may come.

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Cytori Financial Projections by DOV 3-28-16 02 Apr 2016 18:34 #6761

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Hedge,

I discovered an error in my 2016 interest expense and sent a revised copy to Fas so he could post it in a more widely used format. This corrected copy also contains changes in my notes section which address some of your questions.

SUI - I agree that 100% dry pad will be necessary to make the procedure desirable. There is a learning curve to this procedure. It is possible to over-treat and cause blockage and under treatment permits continued leakage. I am OK with the amount charged by Cytori and I am so far below Maxim's number that I am OK with that too!

OA - I think the trial will be successful although I am cautious about cartilage regrowth. Everybody else's trials seem to show good results.

BARDA - I am counting on the cell therapy for burns to become standard of care almost immediately.

IBD / fistula / Crohn's therapies are likely to catch on by the year 2019 or 2020 and I have very low numbers for that billion dollar market. Same with ED.

Anyway, it is a best effort project. I couldn't do any better if I got paid to do it.

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Cytori Financial Projections by DOV 3-28-16 03 Apr 2016 00:14 #6763

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Hi DOV

Thanks for your expanded comments. I really do appreciate it.

If I were to pick one issue it would be the burn figures.

Is there something you could add beyond personal belief that the numbers you posted are achievable.

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Cytori Financial Projections by DOV 3-28-16 03 Apr 2016 10:47 #6764

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www.loyolamedicine.org/burn-center/burn-center-services

www.parklandhospital.com/phhs/burn-unit.aspx

healthcare.utah.edu/burncenter/

surgery.ucsd.edu/divisions/trauma-burn/about/burn-center/Pages/default.aspx

Excerpts from Cytori press releases:

08/19/2014

The treatment of thermal burns remains a critical unmet medical need. Despite standard of care treatment primarily consisting of dressings, skin grafts and skin substitutes, patients frequently suffer from pain, scarring, skin contracture and reduced range of motion. Autologous cell therapies such as Cytori Cell Therapy have the potential to improve the quality and rate of wound healing and to reduce scarring. According to the American Burn Association, there were approximately 450,000 burn injuries that required medical treatment in the United States in 2013, with approximately 40,000 requiring hospitalization.


11/30/2015

SAN DIEGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Cytori Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: CYTX) announced today the publication of preclinical data demonstrating that Cytori Cell Therapy can promote burn wound healing via topical spray delivery, achieving similar effects to local injection.

“These data clearly show that topical spray delivery represents an effective solution to administer Cytori Cell Therapy and potentially optimize standard of care in fragile burn patients,” said Dr. Mayer Tenenhaus, a plastic surgeon from UCSD Burn Center.

Importantly, the data demonstrated that administration by topical spray led to statistically significant improvement over control in epithelialization, blood vessel density, and inflammatory cell infiltration.

Results showed that delivery of Cytori Cell Therapy by topical spray or local injection of Cytori Cell Therapy increased wound epithelialization by about 21% over control at day 12 post-treatment (p<0.05). In addition, at day 7 post-treatment, digital analysis showed that microvessel density was significantly greater in wounds receiving either topical spray or local injection of Cytori Cell Therapy compared to control treatment (1.5-fold. p<0.05). Finally, blinded histopathology and immunohistochemistry analyses showed that topical spray or local injections of Cytori Cell Therapy reduced neutrophil infiltration in burn wounds at day 7 post-treatment (p=0.05).

The current standard of care of full-thickness burns requires early wound excision and application of autologous split-thickness skin grafts (STSG). For large injuries, STSG must be often widely meshed due to limited donor sites and are often associated with scarring and functional and cosmetic complications. Cytori Cell Therapy is potentially an attractive option to optimize skin graft healing and functional outcome.


One common theme among all burn centers is their use of leading edge technology. By the year 2020, the BARDA burn trial will have been complete for well over a year. Upon the FDA approval of Cytori Cell Therapy for Scleroderma in mid 2018, it is anticipated that BARDA will forward deploy the CTX2 devices throughout the country. The first places to receive them would be the specialized burn centers.

My spreadsheet calls for 6,000 patients to be treated with Cytori Cell Therapy out of the 40,000 patients hospitalized. Another way of stating this forecast is that there will be 34,000 severely burned patients whose doctors choose not to treat them with the Cytori Cell Therapy even though at least one CTX2 device is available at their burn center. Perhaps the C R A Z Y forecast is anything less than 100%. Now this does assume no other technology comes along to make Cytori Cell Therapy obsolete!

bestlawfirms.usnews.com/medical-malpractice-law-plaintiffs

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Cytori Financial Projections by DOV 3-28-16 03 Apr 2016 13:48 #6765

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Of course the last line was most telling because the are many potential new treatments working towards burn treatment. I even posted about one some time ago...namely hydrogel...but there are others.

Sorry, this doesn't sway my opinion at all.
Hopefully we get a breakout of usage in 2020.
6,000 +/- for you and 900 or less for me. We will see who is closest. Hopefully you.

:bye:

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Cytori Financial Projections by DOV 3-28-16 04 Apr 2016 07:13 #6768

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These treatments can be used together as well.

2020 is a long way off and there will be much news between now and then. BARDA has been particularly quite over the last year.

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