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TOPIC: new quick math

new quick math 01 Feb 2019 19:42 #12576

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If they only raise the $7.5 million and are able to sell them for $0.25 that adds 30 million new shares to the roughly 15 million shares currently outstanding.
Come August it seems very likely the next reverse split will come. Another 1:5 or something more depending on pricing and continued existence.
In this example...generous as it is the DILUTION IS AGAIN MASSIVE !!!!!!!!!!
:bang:

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new quick math 05 Feb 2019 12:08 #12595

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Yes- this math is correct and the most likely scenario, especially considering past performance. Not very attractive at all. If we look at possible drivers of PPS as we know them- we see the following-


I do think a European 0918 commercial partner will bring in decent money and assure the continued existence beyond medio 2020, but I also concur with SH that the stabilization testing should have results before that can be done. I understand now- that this stabilization testing is something like shelf-life test on the finished -i.e. packed product. So- early November (CC) they were finishing the packing design and one can assume the product has been packed now and that this testing started early January or there abouts. Still some way to go.

I expect Sceradec II in Q3 and ADRESU late Q2 or Q3- so nothing on this list that could spur PPS, except a surprise announcement, like a Chinese partner.

Mind you- the PO reads like an invitation to large institutions or possible acquirers to take a big stake in Cytori and park the shares in preferred D until "the time is ripe". Ordinary shareholders can only invest in Class A shares with a meager half warrant, which likely will not be listed.

What amazes me though is the generosity of Oxford based on last Amendment -this almost reads like they are comfortable with the future....:cool:
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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

new quick math 05 Feb 2019 13:33 #12597

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Fas, you posted that the Class A units come with a meager half-warrant - is it your interpretation that the Class B units carry one whole warrant rather than just a half-warrant?

No question that the offering is clever and will succeed if enough large Class B buyers feel that the low market cap versus inherent value is attractive enough, particularly when coupled with the benefit of the preferred shares which will give them some time to see how things play out. Of course, pricing of the Class B Units will be an important factor.

Still not happy about the Offering.:cry:
.

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new quick math 05 Feb 2019 21:48 #12598

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As far as Oxford...imho...its pure dollars and cents...clearly they see extending the most expensive loan known is favorable to instant foreclosure which they can do at anytime should Cytori fail to complete it usual biannual funding.

As for the warrants...they have worked out so well in the past for investors.

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new quick math 09 Feb 2019 09:44 #12609

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Lots of catalysts FIH BARDA , ADRESU maybe a France but I think clearest line is generic 918. Fas pointed this out and WSJ too. I try to find ur when they put registration batches on stability but of course no answer. Even feasibility batches may help get partner. I think for commercial they need 6 mon according to my contacts. For ph 1 trials we need one month but can file IND on feasibility batches. Liposomes not easy to make. I know firsthand on small scale. For commercial 6 months but maybe 3 months can start partnering just a thought. I also speculate albeit optimistically they dilute based on good new. If they can reach 90 cents or so lots of money may roll in based on warrant exercises and then people selling to make some money off warrants. But I think there are a lot mor financial savvy people here. Just a chemist who works in drug discovery. Again stability data is key to short term movement and maybe survival. Too many things fail in ph 3

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new quick math 09 Feb 2019 10:48 #12610

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There are ZERO catalyst anyone is willing to pay for, hence the reason of going to the markets.
This is about the EXTENSION of outrageous salaries of those who repeatedly FAIL.
They will again need funds in 2019 and this raise will not do anything for the debt.
ADRSU is worthless
BARDA at best will be a niche treatment but the hope is the government buys a bunch of product to collect dust.
French data again pushed out
0918, if it gets to market will be 3rd in line and second generic.
The only catalyst I see are for more dilution and Reverse Splits until certain people can retire.

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new quick math 09 Feb 2019 13:57 #12612

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Hedge with one of his finest outbursts of negativity on a boring Saturday afternoon again- well done- time will tell. :whistle:

Anyway SH- question - you wrote - Liposomes not easy to make - I recently discovered a study on patients with my profile, who did not make it and a highly SS biomarker was glutathione deficiency in those patients that did not make it. So- for that reason I added liposomal glutathione to my regimen of protection.

That stuff really seems to have an impact on my well-being (energy etc) and seems to reach my bloodstream, only comparable to an hour work-out in the gym or my high dose capsaicin intake which raises my body temperature slightly - I buy a 5 ounce bottle for 25$ or so and there are many other liposomal vitamins on the market.

Q- what is the difference to a pegylated liposomal product that Cytori desires to market?

Thanks

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

new quick math 09 Feb 2019 15:55 #12613

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Fas .didn't expect the high negative reaction when I just pointed both sides of argument but I understand..been burned for many years now. I wished I sold back in 2014 or 2015 when stock hit 1.40 pre pre pre pre split.
I worked in RD on making liposomes for oral delivery..now there are several drugs with them. The PEG modification increwes the life time to put it simply..same techniques to produce just the lipid is probably more expensive as a starting material
But liposomes can be leaky and dox by itself is toxic. Hence Peg liposomes reduce tix and get more tumor exposure. Of course one needs some experience manufacturing these. Cytori had non and probably why so manybdelays. They do have in-house analytical which helps. My experience and still going on are that outsourced analytical teams can slow down and sometimes be hard to troubleshoot.

Different note..can you recommend any liposomes GST commercial products. Be curious to try espnto get home energy. Thanks as always for keeping this forum alive
..march 31 is d day.

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new quick math 09 Feb 2019 17:10 #12614

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Why thank you Fas ! :grin:

SH, the key to not being totally devastated here was not to continue to pour in funds as the dream began to evaporate.

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new quick math 10 Feb 2019 01:35 #12615

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SH wrote: Different note..can you recommend any liposomes GST commercial products. Be curious to try espnto get home energy. Thanks as always for keeping this forum alive
..march 31 is d day.


Thanks for the explanations- not much difference than except for the shelf life. Anyway- I buy my stuff from this outfit -

www.actinovo.com/shop/de/The-Revolution

As you can see- actinovo.com- I think they are Dutch, but produce in Germany- I get my stuff monthly with my combined delivery order from Amazon and the 250 ml bottle lasts a small month and I pay only 22 Euro. They seem to have a distributor in the US too. They extend the shelf life with adding 10% alcohol it seems.

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

new quick math 10 Feb 2019 07:53 #12616

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I will look into this Fas..read a bit about this last night. Based on my long ago work with liposomes likely it helps with absorbing the GSH through GI wall but also solubikizing as miscelles in GI. Some really cool technologies now for making liposomes in controlled way.

I was too short in my last answer. We put PEGs on molecules in drug discovery to increase the lifetime of molecules in the body or change where they are targeted. Pegylation drives the liposomes to tumors much more selectively so the liposomes with the toxic dox can work better. PEG helps with both shelf stability and in Vivo efficacy and safety profile. cytoris bioequiv studies are within specs but they need to show ability to make product which has good shelf life
6 months testing probably gives them 2 years or some number of shelf life years ..don't know. I have to face this issue with the small molecules i work on

Sorry if too long or not quite clear answer earlier.

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new quick math 10 Feb 2019 07:54 #12617

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thanks Fas for the rec again on liposomes you use.

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new quick math 10 Feb 2019 11:04 #12618

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Thanks SH- yeah - your last explanation makes a lot of sense to me and kind of confirms my limited knowledge and understanding on PEGs. In the past I have been looking at several Youtube videos on the subject and although a bit technical, I liked this one here-



On the Cytori page they claimed that with cancer patients that due to endothelial dysfunction of the vascular system at cancer effected bodily area´s is more "leaky" than others and therefore the product can target those effected area´s better.
You know my thinking on insulin resistance and its impact on the vascular system, so in my view 60% of the US population probably have "leaky vascular systems" and there must be something better on a cellular level- I guess what you write here- Pegylation drives the liposomes to tumors much more selectively is kind of a ligand targeting method, which would also make sense to me.

Anyway- just to more accurately describe the impact of GSH intake that I get- within just a few minutes after oral intake my brain already signals its impact. Actually it reminds me a bit of amphetamine which I used to take in my student days more than 50 years ago 3 days before examinations to catch up since I was a lazy bastard- it gets one going without the unwanted side-effects....:grin: :grin:

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

new quick math 10 Feb 2019 12:01 #12619

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Fas, you are spot on with the Pegylated liposomes...nice work. Very intrigued by impact on GSH on energy...I really could use that. I use caffeine to get the boost but could some more. Let's hope cytori gets stability data soon..I'm sure hedge will have comments

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