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TOPIC: The Laidlaw Report

The Laidlaw Report 24 Feb 2018 11:31 #11375

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A good friend mailed me the report, so here you go.

The text of the report I would say, is generally OK, considering the state of the game and what is known. The share count is heavily understated and erroneous, thereto it lists management which is long gone on top of a few other mistakes. Nonetheless- worth reading.

The valuation comes from a sum of the parts NPV by project, which you see in the image below-



There is an extended P/L in the report until 2020, which does not show profit up to that year-

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

The Laidlaw Report 24 Feb 2018 12:06 #11377

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I don't know how but I screwed up my entire response

Maybe later....

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The Laidlaw Report 24 Feb 2018 12:38 #11378

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Fas, the Laidlaw Report provides some good info, but the screw -up on the the O/S shares used to compute the 1.65 target is just unbelievable (along with the personnel errors), and both may diminish the acceptance of the report in general. Having said that, I think the risk-adjusted NPV's were extremely conservative and if adjusted could more than offset the impact of using the incorrect share count.

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The Laidlaw Report 24 Feb 2018 12:59 #11380

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*** but the screw -up on the the O/S shares used to compute the 1.65 target is just unbelievable***
Told ya. These guys do it all the time.

*** I think the risk-adjusted NPV's were extremely conservative and if adjusted could more than offset the impact of using the incorrect share count. ***
Nope too bullish....stem business worth little

No one has addressed this statement yet:
*** CYTX is scheduled to discuss with the FDA, possibly in 1H18 for the Habeo cell therapy future regulatory path in scleroderma. ***
"POSSIBLY" ???? And how did we go from Q1 to 1H2018 ????

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The Laidlaw Report 25 Feb 2018 03:56 #11381

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:grin:

Funny. I was sure Hedge would jump all over the 25 cents- "debt free cash" (2019) component of the valuation sum.

This assumes I guess that Oxford is paid off and some cash is left in the coffers, which would almost be worth the present market cap.

Wonder where he gets that from :whistle:

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

The Laidlaw Report 25 Feb 2018 05:56 #11383

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As I posted earlier I screwed up my longer response while copying it and that addressed other areas of interest.
I did ignore that specific one (25 cents) and listed the part under MAJOR Risk from Yale of another secondary

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The Laidlaw Report 25 Feb 2018 06:17 #11384

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fas wrote: :grin:

Funny. I was sure Hedge would jump all over the 25 cents- "debt free cash" (2019) component of the valuation sum.

This assumes I guess that Oxford is paid off and some cash is left in the coffers, which would almost be worth the present market cap.

Wonder where he gets that from :whistle:

/

I definitely saw that and was very surprised - it would have had to have come from a partnership or the sale of some assets, neither of which was identified in the report (other than a reference to an ATI-0918 partnership in Europe), OR it was just another screw-up.

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The Laidlaw Report 25 Feb 2018 08:05 #11385

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I forgot to add to my prior post that the lack of any value for BARDA in the NPV summary may more than offset the questionable debt-free cash!

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The Laidlaw Report 25 Feb 2018 08:06 #11386

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Probably RS, but the numbers are all fantasy anyway, not JK level fantasy, but fantasy all the same.
Unless you really think Hedrick created all that value out of Azaya accomplishing little in the last year. $4 million to $107 million (pre-discount)...LOL

BTW...who do you think called who first ?
Yale Jen or Cytori ????

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The Laidlaw Report 27 Feb 2018 08:16 #11395

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myownhedgefund wrote: BTW...who do you think called who first ?
Yale Jen or Cytori ????


Although not really important, I do think one should take note of the fact, that the analyst hasnt received any compensation for the report and personally I like the fact that basically Laidlaw is a British Investment firm and quite reputable i.e. not one of these by the dozen US investment outfits. :really:

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

The Laidlaw Report 27 Feb 2018 09:18 #11396

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fas wrote:

myownhedgefund wrote: BTW...who do you think called who first ?
Yale Jen or Cytori ????


Although not really important, I do think one should take note of the fact, that the analyst hasnt received any compensation for the report and personally I like the fact that basically Laidlaw is a British Investment firm and quite reputable i.e. not one of these by the dozen US investment outfits. :really:

/

Good point - It is interesting that any firm (let alone British Laidlaw) would dip it's toes in the current muddy waters re CYTX without having some knowledge or strong feeling that those muddy waters might soon clear up rather quickly.

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The Laidlaw Report 27 Feb 2018 09:34 #11397

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Personally, I'd be more impressed with a highly ranked analyst from a smaller unknown firm than someone who is ranked in the bottom 6%
Then we have JK who is in the bottom 1%

I don't consider these ringing endorsements if this is the quality we attract for coverage.

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The Laidlaw Report 27 Feb 2018 09:43 #11398

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Then we have B Riley analyst in the top 10% with their $0.50 target.
Something we actually occasionally hit and in the area of Fas' EU buyout speculations.
He is in the top 10% of rankings

So who should we believe ?
I say this is where we look for upgrades.

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The Laidlaw Report 27 Feb 2018 10:22 #11399

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myownhedgefund wrote: Personally, I'd be more impressed with a highly ranked analyst from a smaller unknown firm than someone who is ranked in the bottom 6%
Then we have JK who is in the bottom 1%

I don't consider these ringing endorsements if this is the quality we attract for coverage.


Could you kindly provide the source of your ratings?

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The Laidlaw Report 27 Feb 2018 10:35 #11400

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Already did.
Look in the $1.65 thread.
Although do we really need anything to know JK's record...LOL :grin:

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The Laidlaw Report 27 Feb 2018 10:51 #11401

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myownhedgefund wrote: Already did.
Look in the $1.65 thread.
Although do we really need anything to know JK's record...LOL :grin:


Thanks.

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The Laidlaw Report 01 Mar 2018 12:06 #11426

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I had a glance at the numbers in the income statement of the Laidlaw report and concluded that-

either he knows more than we do ´-that is that Cytori "rolls back" the reorganisation and incurs the same cash-burn as before, which is extremely unlikely or he just fabricated something which is just way out-of-line. I presume the last possibility is correct.
, since Cytori´s guidance is:

Now on to our financial guidance. Considering the impact of our restructuring announced in September, we are updating our operating cash burn guidance to range from $17 million to $19 million for the full fiscal 2017, which is an improvement from our revised guidance of $20 million to $23 million for a full year announced earlier in the year. Another sizable portion of the reduction in operating burn guidance discussed in our last earnings call comes from pre-commercial HABEO activities that can be deferred pending feedback on FDA post-STAR trial meeting which we expect to have after holidays.
Our short-term goal is to decrease our operating cash burn to approximately $12 million a year.


And the numbers in the report are extrapolations of the Q3 numbers, i.e he ups Q4 expense instead of decreasing them drastically. Pretty useless.

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

The Laidlaw Report 01 Mar 2018 12:20 #11428

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Sometimes I guess those poor analyst ratings are earned.

Fas, do you remember when we have to start paying principal on the Oxford loan again ?
I remember since we raised greater than 5 million we got the full interest only ride but forget when the full payments return.

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The Laidlaw Report 01 Mar 2018 12:29 #11429

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