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I have no comment 25 Sep 2014 12:08 #2309

  • rothco619
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Maxim Group Reiterated Buy On Cytori Therapeutics Following Restructuring Plans
September 25, 2014 11:01 AM EDT by Editor Corey Williams in Analyst Insights, Healthcare
In a research report issued yesterday, Maxim Group analyst Jason Kolbert reiterated a Buy rating on Cytori Therapeutics (NASDAQ:CYTX) with a price target of $5.00.

Kolbert noted, “CEO (and co-founder) Marc Hedrick MD has taken the reins at Cytori and unveiled details of the company’s restructuring plans that will reduce annual expenses by $8M and the new focus to drive the ADRC franchise towards commercial approval in a host of indications that have clear clinical pathways. Cytori will focus on ADRC indications for thermal burns (BARDA contract), scleroderma, osteoarthritis and stress urinary incontinence. All four indications use the ADRC Celution System which will have a next generation system released in 2015, further reducing COGS. Following multiple discussions with management we see the combination of restructuring and a therapeutic alignment towards indications with clear cut clinical pathways as positive.”

According to TipRanks.com, which measures analysts’ and bloggers’ success rate based on how their calls perform, analyst Jason Kolbert has a total average return of 11.2% and a 51.0% success rate. Kolbert has a -68.6% average return when recommending CYTX, and is ranked #254 out of 3304 analysts.
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I have no comment 25 Sep 2014 12:52 #2310

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That is OK :cool:

cardiac- only continues if CYTX finds somebody to pay for it. And the sports medicine deal is off- therefore no hamstrings or ACL stuff. :whistle:

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

I have no comment 25 Sep 2014 14:56 #2311

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Roth,

Did you notice the 2014 and 2015 revenue estimates. I thought they were erroneous but I checked with Maxim and they are as intended. 79,000,000 Revs in 2015 and $.60 EPS from BARDA kicking in. 27,000,000 Revs in 2014. Doesn't help the current situation unless they can convince others this is going to happen and help raise capital now.

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I have no comment 25 Sep 2014 16:04 #2312

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WST/Rothco - Can you get a copy of that report ? I'd love to see how they get those rev's ..... I'm sure others would as well. Those are huge numbers! Those are "come to Jesus" numbers........... Maybe I need to go to work for cytx on a straight commission...... I'm damn sure I could raise the cash they need. :cool: This thing is beyond crazy - these guys have a PHD in snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
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I have no comment 25 Sep 2014 20:10 #2313

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WST...79 million in revenues... $ 0.60 in earnings yet a $ 5.00 price target for 2015 ?????

There is no end to JK's comic relief ! :joy:

BTW...love JK's 50/50 sucess rate...OK 51% :puke:

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I have no comment 26 Sep 2014 01:54 #2314

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The summary reads as follows:

Summary:

CEO (and co-founder) Marc Hedrick MD has taken the reins at Cytori and unveiled details of the company's restructuring plans that will reduce annual expenses by M and the new focus to drive the ADRC franchise towards commercial approval in a host of indications that have clear clinical pathways.
Cytori will focus on ADRC indications for thermal burns (BARDA contract), scleroderma, osteoarthritis and stress urinary incontinence. All four indications use the ADRC Celution System which will have a next generation system released in 2015, further reducing COGS.
Following multiple discussions with management we see the combination of restructuring and a therapeutic alignment towards indications with clear cut clinical pathways as positive.
We are have revised our models of Cytori which are detailed below.

Details:

​The New Cytori; Lean & Focused: The take away from the restructuring announcement is that the company will save ~$ 8M per year in non-R&D expenses. A reduction in head count (119 to 77), consolidation of operations and trimming of unnecessary expenses is underway. Refocused efforts around thermal burns (BARDA contract), scleroderma, osteoarthritis and urinary incontinence should represent clear cut clinical pathway to the marketplace.

Thermal Burns and BARDA. The BARDA contract is worth up to $ 106M in non-dilutive capital. A $ 12M contract option was recently executed and another $ 8M will come following completion of the pilot clinical trial for burn injury and IDE approval. The company anticipates completing the trial following the release of the next-generation Celution system in 2015.

Scleroderma and Osteoarthritis. Cytori continues to diversify the ADRC therapeutic indication with movement in the scleroderma trial, which has produced six-month data that has been published and 12-month data that is being reviewed for 1Q15. The scleroderma space has 70,000 patients in the US, and Cytori believes that they can take a large market share relatively easily for this unmet need. In osteoarthritis (knee), Cytori is currently evaluating ADRCs in the RECOVER (phase I/II) trial which is planned to expand from 10 patients to 70 in 2015. The company has also received approval for an IDE trial in osteoarthritis which is expected to enroll in 2015.

Urinary Incontinence and Japan. Currently, the Japanese government sponsored pivotal clinical trial is being reviewed by the MHLW and should commence enrolling in 2015. Also the new regenerative medicine legislation should favor Cytori as the ADRCs are already approved as an autologous, POC therapy. This could set the stage for Cytori to capture significant revenues in Japan, a country with 4 million urinary incontinence patients. Success in Japan could aid in clinical development here in the US (25 million patients).

Valuation. We have revised out model to reflect these initiaves (operational and clinical) and assume that Cytori will be successful in one, if not multiple indications. Using these metrics, we model the market and discount back using a 30% rate in our FCF, discounted EPS, and sum of the-parts models to arrive at our new $ 5.00 price target.
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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

I have no comment 26 Sep 2014 02:13 #2315

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The problem with the analysis is, that Jason does not understand that BARDA money also has a cost factor. He takes 79M in 2H 2015 as non-dilutive capital so to speak. The remainder of the contract after the options discussed so far.

The general set up of his new model is very attractive and conforms roughly how I would do it too.

Basically he takes the 4 indications - splits them up in US and EU markets and takes market intro from 2019 onwards.

Only Japan comes in with SUI in 2016 already, which makes sense to me, but there will be a few more indications and Japan can be considered as global market # 2 so deserves some separate consideration also.

Anyway- Jason all in all is on the right track- cardiac however will have influence also in Europe and Japan in the near future. :vegas:

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

I have no comment 26 Sep 2014 06:43 #2317

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is there no mention of cardiac in the report? I hope that isn't indicative that Athena will not resume

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I have no comment 26 Sep 2014 08:11 #2318

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For 2015, Jason assumes the remaining BARDA options are exercised but takes all the revenues in the second half of 2015. The original contract has a timeline out to September 2017. With the new streamlined approach he has nothing in his model for CHF and he is not modeling anything from KT Lim. Its all right there though: 2015 EPS of $.60 on 79MM in revenues.

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I have no comment 26 Sep 2014 08:57 #2320

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With the new streamlined approach he has nothing in his model for CHF and he is not modeling anything from KT Lim. Its all right there though: 2015 EPS of $.60 on 79MM in revenues.


Yep- but a spreadsheet is a spreadsheet with some crystal balling which can be far off from reality. Cardiac to me is also unsure from a pivotal perspective as long as there is no sponsor/partner and the BS issue should be resolved before they can start enrolling ATHENA in Q1 2015 again. Hopefully Okyanos will do well (and of course their patients) attracting some interest from players with deep pockets for the app. :cool:
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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:
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