Hear me out a bit there....Assume 125 million shares are outstanding in 5 years at $ 10 / share its a 1.25 Billion market cap about 14.7 times where we are today.
8 million sales today...increase that by a 14 factor and you get 112 million in sales
Lets say the average consumable sale is 4K....so you need 28,000 patients treated in 2019 or 5 years from now...a massively big jump from what we do today.
Of course these are all imaginary plug in numbers...I can use the very same numbers and make the case for $ 23/share
There is alot that has to go right...they need tens of thousands of annual patients...still huge unknowns as to how it all unfolds.
In 5 years below $ 10 is possible....so is above $ 10
Sparking a little interest in mr5874's survey isnt so bad
All it takes is some good news that may come from any number of catalysts such as those enumerated by DOV in his "Letter to a concerned shareholder".
As for crunching numbers I see this as a bit of an exercise in futility. No doubt we have all done some analysis of potential sales in any number of indications. I am certain that CYTX management did the same thing and decided that they were worth a lot more than others were prepared to pay. This has not worked out particularly well for them, or us.
I would simply point out that Mesoblast having signed a deal with TEVA has a market cap of 1.4 billion, without having ANY sales.
Valuations of biotech stocks are very much determined by sentiment and fluctuate ridiculously depending on whether it is positive or negative.
I believe USD 10 per share is doable within a year and USD 3 by years end. There are too many catalysts that are pending. All the bad news should have been discounted .......... the worst problem is funding the BS........ it is known ......... if it is addressed in a positive manner, sentiment can change very quickly.
My question to all of you especially DOV is when has Cytori ever addressed anything and to quote rongside "in a positive manner".
Nothing at Cytori is ever addressed. Shareholders are left to suffer in silence. The communication from Cytori is non existent. Updates are non existent. Questions posed go unanswered. Letters to Investor relations go unanswered. Why bother to answer a poll question when nobody could possibly give a answer based on anything, but conjecture, speculation.or desperation. Shareholders are treated like crap with no regard for the millions of dollars we have all lost. Cytori is a joke and until somebody at Cytori actually does something they say they are going to do,then Cytori will remain and pardon my French the absolute piece of shit that it has become and that is our sad reality.
I agree with many of your points. A very important philosopher once said "you can't shine shit' However, less than 52 weeks ago this stock was at 3 .83 per share. The Company, its products, and potential have not changed materially since then. If anything BARDA has increased the value of the company, and the management changes are in my opinion positive . So yes I do believe we could be at over two dollars quickly if something positive is done with the balance sheet. Not that I have the balls to buy now at 1.05 and double my money. It could be a quarter in a few months.
rongside: Mesoblast has lots of cash that adds to its valuation. Also TEVA inherited Mesoblast and early on TEVA's CEO hated Mesoblast and thought the deal they got with ( I forget off the top of my head who originally made the deal) was crazy. TEVA's CEO since changed its mind...we shall see what kind of pay-off they get. Oops, almost forgot Mesoblast actually enrolls and finishes trials !!!!!!!!!!!
rothco: The reasons you list for not joining in the poll are reasons to do so. Its a distraction beyond todays pathetic PPS and keeps focus on a brighter future. Of course it is pure speculation. No reason for those who play cant have a little fun with it ! :woohoo:
you are not wrong about MSB having a lot of cash. What is important to note though is that (1) the cash arose from the deal that Itescu did with Cephalon, and (2) the credibility that MSB got due to this deal was sufficient for them to raise substantial additional capital to fund other trials, not included in the partnership agreement.
Without wishing to get into a discussion regarding the merits of each company's technology I feel that a good deal by CYTX is possible and can change the dynamic of the company and its shareprice. Such a deal appears to have been on the cards in the past according to Fas ........ and was mentioned by CC in the video interview that was subsequently deleted fromYouTube.
A strong partnership deal preceeded or followed by some good news could do wonders for the SP. The breadth of indications being treated is such that just one approval in a major market can totally turn this situation around. Japan may well offer the opportunity or EU may decide to fund larger scleroderma trial and also look at Rheumatoid Arthritis or MS.......
Cephlan paid 220 million for their stake...I call that a decent chunk of change.
Yes they have been burning cash since
The rest of your post seems to agree with me that the deal added valuation and credibility
I have argued over and over and OVER that you raise more $ than you think you need. Real buy and hold institutions are NOT going to buy when the next dilution is 6 months or so away !!! Hedrick didnt add any confidence hiding the ATHENA stoppage for 2 months.